In presidential elections, size doesn't always matter
It's the most deceptive sign on politics.
Every four years, a presidential candidate gazes out over a colossal crowd and convinces themselves the White home is there for the taking.
In 2016, the overall election candidate drawing the most important and loudest crowds is Donald Trump.
"We ought to Sooner State, we have 25,000 people. We had 21,000 folks in city, we had 35,000 folks in Mobile, Alabama. we tend to get these large crowds," Trump same in American state earlier this month.
"Look, if she had five hundred folks i might be shocked," he added, thrusting fun at mountain climber Clinton's a lot of intimate events.
During the primaries, Trump's large crowds did, in fact, translate to votes. however size isn't continually a measuring instrument of a campaign's destiny.
In fact, extrapolating electoral prospects from the dimensions of rally crowds is commonly a dishonest metric -- for proof, look no any than the campaigns of Bruno Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, John Kerry and Mitt Romney. Bernie Sanders excited thousands of individuals in mega-rallies over the past year and a [*fr1] likewise.
Yet each election, candidates and aides, seeking silver linings once beset by dangerous polls, indulge the hopeful thought that bulging rallies can mean a stampede at the box.
Often, they tout that mystical, however unquantifiable, political commodity: Momentum.
"Momentum's a word from physics that got hijacked by journalists and political operatives to sound scientific," same SAM Wang, a academic of neurobiology UN agency runs Princeton University's Election association. "What it suggests that is -- 'I am excited by wherever i'm nowadays, i'm excited by what's happening.'"
That is not stopping Trump but -- even as it didn't stop Sanders supporters UN agency saw his crowds of twenty,000 and up within the primary race to argue that a moving ridge of enthusiasm for the Green Mountain State legislator might overcome Clinton.
Trump supporters square measure golf stroke their religion in boots on the bottom at his rallies.
"They square measure standing in lines for 2 hours and (in) 90-degree weather to urge in," big apple Rep. Chris Collins told CNN's Brianna Keilar in the week.
"This energy you're seeing ... is why the polls mean nothing. this is often a turnout election and also the energy is behind Donald Trump."
But history shows, that for all its faults, polling may be a higher predictor of electoral success during a broad citizens, than crowd size.
Still, it isn't not possible that Trump's multitudes may be a sign the grassroots rising can confound standard knowledge once more. there's AN exception to each rule.
Barack Obama's mega rallies in 2008 did end up to be AN indicator of strength and shocking aggressiveness in red states like Missouri -- wherever he once had a crowd of one hundred,000 folks and IN, wherever he attracted thirty five,000 to a rally in Indianapolis. He concluded up losing Missouri by a whisker however bare-assed IN out of the political party column.
"In 2008, we tend to had rallies with fifty,000, 80,000, 100,000 people. i am not bragging ... generally you hear people say, 'oh, that rally is massive.' I say, i do not recognize ... we tend to had some pretty massive rallies," Obama same at a Democratic fundraiser in state capital, Texas, in March, in what could are a swipe against Trump. See More The Best News
T/H: CNN
Every four years, a presidential candidate gazes out over a colossal crowd and convinces themselves the White home is there for the taking.
In 2016, the overall election candidate drawing the most important and loudest crowds is Donald Trump.
"We ought to Sooner State, we have 25,000 people. We had 21,000 folks in city, we had 35,000 folks in Mobile, Alabama. we tend to get these large crowds," Trump same in American state earlier this month.
"Look, if she had five hundred folks i might be shocked," he added, thrusting fun at mountain climber Clinton's a lot of intimate events.
During the primaries, Trump's large crowds did, in fact, translate to votes. however size isn't continually a measuring instrument of a campaign's destiny.
In fact, extrapolating electoral prospects from the dimensions of rally crowds is commonly a dishonest metric -- for proof, look no any than the campaigns of Bruno Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, John Kerry and Mitt Romney. Bernie Sanders excited thousands of individuals in mega-rallies over the past year and a [*fr1] likewise.
Yet each election, candidates and aides, seeking silver linings once beset by dangerous polls, indulge the hopeful thought that bulging rallies can mean a stampede at the box.
Often, they tout that mystical, however unquantifiable, political commodity: Momentum.
"Momentum's a word from physics that got hijacked by journalists and political operatives to sound scientific," same SAM Wang, a academic of neurobiology UN agency runs Princeton University's Election association. "What it suggests that is -- 'I am excited by wherever i'm nowadays, i'm excited by what's happening.'"
That is not stopping Trump but -- even as it didn't stop Sanders supporters UN agency saw his crowds of twenty,000 and up within the primary race to argue that a moving ridge of enthusiasm for the Green Mountain State legislator might overcome Clinton.
Trump supporters square measure golf stroke their religion in boots on the bottom at his rallies.
"They square measure standing in lines for 2 hours and (in) 90-degree weather to urge in," big apple Rep. Chris Collins told CNN's Brianna Keilar in the week.
"This energy you're seeing ... is why the polls mean nothing. this is often a turnout election and also the energy is behind Donald Trump."
But history shows, that for all its faults, polling may be a higher predictor of electoral success during a broad citizens, than crowd size.
Still, it isn't not possible that Trump's multitudes may be a sign the grassroots rising can confound standard knowledge once more. there's AN exception to each rule.
Barack Obama's mega rallies in 2008 did end up to be AN indicator of strength and shocking aggressiveness in red states like Missouri -- wherever he once had a crowd of one hundred,000 folks and IN, wherever he attracted thirty five,000 to a rally in Indianapolis. He concluded up losing Missouri by a whisker however bare-assed IN out of the political party column.
"In 2008, we tend to had rallies with fifty,000, 80,000, 100,000 people. i am not bragging ... generally you hear people say, 'oh, that rally is massive.' I say, i do not recognize ... we tend to had some pretty massive rallies," Obama same at a Democratic fundraiser in state capital, Texas, in March, in what could are a swipe against Trump. See More The Best News
T/H: CNN
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